NFL Coaching Carousel: Buying and Selling the Future 🏈

The NFL coaching carousel has spun rapidly this offseason, with numerous teams embarking on a new journey in 2025. A refreshing batch of fresh leadership is set to influence the strategies and performance of various franchises. Notably, five teams have welcomed first-time head coaches, while two trusts experienced hands to lead their way.

With win totals now established and the dust beginning to settle, let’s dive into which coaching changes are worth betting on and which might not be as promising.

Buy: Teams on the Rise 🔆

Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys: 7.5 Wins – O (-110) / U (+120)

The Cowboys managed to snag seven wins despite missing their star quarterback, Dak Prescott, for nine games in the previous season. With Prescott earning a remarkable PFF grade of 90.8 back in 2023, his return will undeniably bolster the offensive stability of a team hungry for improvement.

Brian Schottenheimer, entering his first season as head coach, has been a part of the Cowboys since 2021 and led the offensive strategies for the past two seasons. His familiarity with both the roster and the playbook will significantly aid in this transition. Although the NFC East offers its challenges, achieving the eight-win benchmark appears feasible.

Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Wins – O (-145) / U (+120)

The Las Vegas Raiders have already started reaping the rewards of hiring an experienced head coach in Pete Carroll. Working alongside GM John Spytek, Carroll has quickly revamped the roster, garnering positive reviews for their offseason efforts.

A standout move was the trade for quarterback Geno Smith, known for his low negatively graded throw rate since 2022. Adding to the mix is a strong draft class, highlighted by Ashton Jeanty, the top-ranked running back in college football during the last two seasons. With a manageable schedule ahead, Carroll looks ready to guide this team to surpassing expectations.

Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots: 7.5 Wins – O (-150) / U (+125)

Mike Vrabel, known for his ability to reshape struggling franchises, has made proactive strides with the New England Patriots. The team received an A+ in offseason grades, showcasing their progress.

After finishing the last season with only four wins and being rated poorly in offensive and defensive team grades, the front office sprang into action through aggressive drafts and signings, notably enhancing the offensive line with veterans like Morgan Moses. For rookie quarterback Drake Maye, these changes should speed up his development as they approach a lighter schedule featuring just four playoff teams next season.

Aaron Glenn, New York Jets: 5.5 Wins – 5.5 O (-135) / U (+148)

The Jets have opted for Aaron Glenn to lead their quest for improvement. His infectious energy and leadership are expected to provide substantial stability, particularly after a rocky season last year.

Glenn’s defensive expertise aligns perfectly with the roster’s makeup. Although some key players departed, strong additions from the draft, such as Armand Membou, will bolster the team. While the offense will likely rely on a run-heavy strategy featuring Breece Hall, the defense is primed to remain a cornerstone. Building on last year’s five wins feels very achievable with Glenn at the helm.

Sell: Teams Facing Tough Challenges ❌

Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins – O (+120) / U (-110)

Under Ben Johnson’s leadership, the Bears have revamped several critical areas of their roster, most notably the offensive line. The addition of All-Pro Joe Thuney and others aims to resolve their previous issues. However, as the most sought-after coaching hire of the offseason, expectations are sky-high.

Despite roster improvements, Chicago is faced with the most formidable division in the NFC and countered by a tough projected strength of schedule. Clearing the 8.5-win threshold may be more daunting than it appears, considering their challenging path ahead.

Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5 Wins – O (-110) / U (+100)

The Jaguars encountered significant struggles last season, which were not solely tied to Trevor Lawrence’s injury. Even before his absence, the team had only managed two wins with a fully healthy roster. Although Liam Coen has taken the reins, substantial roster challenges remain.

With ongoing changes from new GM James Gladstone, the Jaguars still have critical holes — particularly on defense. The run defense was notably weak last season, and retaining its ineffective status could hamper the team's ability to succeed. While a soft schedule might aid them, expecting last year’s win totals to double is likely too optimistic.

Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints: 5.5 Wins – O (+130) / U (-125)

Kellen Moore inherits a Saints team that finds itself struggling to rebuild effectively. The continued push of cap commitments and questionable personnel decisions has left New Orleans in a fragile state, even as they were the last team to finalize their head coach this offseason.

Derek Carr’s retirement creates a significant gap in leadership and performance, especially given his high passing grade from last year. In his absence, the Saints now find themselves with a quarterback situation comprising uncertainty, particularly surrounding rookie Tyler Shough, who brings a history of injuries with limited experience. Navigating this transition to achieve even a modest improvement seems steep.

As the NFL prepares for a new season, the coaching changes set the stage for intriguing challenges and opportunities. While some teams are loaded with potential, others face uphill battles that might make progress more elusive. Keep an eye on the season's unfolding drama and cheer on your favorite teams as they strive for greatness! 🌟