Kansas City Chiefs guard Trey Smith made headlines this offseason by becoming the NFL’s highest-paid guard in an unexpected manner, securing a one-year, $23.4 million franchise tag.

This tag is seen as a temporary solution for Smith, who has until July 15th to negotiate a long-term contract with the Chiefs. As the clock ticks down, many anticipate that a favorable extension will materialize soon.

Kansas City opted to invest in the talented Pro Bowl guard during this offseason, even trading veteran Joe Thuney to the Chicago Bears in light of financial constraints. A new deal makes perfect sense for both parties, as it would likely reduce Smith’s current hefty cap hit of $23.4 million.

However, a new agreement for the guard is expected to come with a significant price tag, especially following the franchise tag proclamation by the Chiefs.

So, what might a long-term contract for Smith portray?

Baseline Numbers for a Trey Smith Contract

Given his standing, Smith is on track to secure one of the top spots in the guard market with his upcoming contract. The Chiefs demonstrated confidence in their decision by placing the $23.4 million salary for the year 2025 on him.

Currently, the highest salary for guards is held by Landon Dickerson, who signed a lucrative four-year, $84 million deal last offseason. The maximum total compensation belongs to Chris Lindstrom’s five-year, $102 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons, while the most guaranteed money in a guard contract is Quenton Nelson’s four-year, $80 million deal, which includes $60 million in guarantees, with the Indianapolis Colts.

These figures are crucial considerations for Smith, especially as he approaches his 26th birthday.

The potential length of the agreement—be it four or five years—stands as a significant point of debate. The Chiefs are no strangers to high-value contracts and broke records last offseason with center Creed Humphrey’s four-year, $72 million deal.

While it’s unlikely that Smith will receive a long-term contract equal to his current franchise tag figure, there is a strong possibility he could surpass those figures in a groundbreaking deal.

Forecasting a New Contract for Trey Smith

A four-year agreement could be ideal for Smith since it would allow him to re-enter the market during his peak years.

Given his negotiation power, it’s reasonable to expect his salary to exceed Landon Dickerson’s $21 million annually. The critical factor, however, will be the guarantees. Currently, Quenton Nelson’s $60 million in guarantees stands as the benchmark, and Smith is likely to surpass that threshold.

The Chiefs have a history of providing significant guaranteed money to their top players, particularly along the offensive line. For instance, they secured nearly 70 percent of Humphrey’s total compensation as guaranteed, while $60 million (or 75 percent) of Jawaan Taylor’s four-year, $80 million deal was guaranteed at signing.

With this track record, it’s reasonable to believe that Smith's deal could set a new precedent in the coming weeks. The guard is expected to secure financial commitments for his first two years, complemented by a signing bonus upon signing. Both sides seem eager to maintain their relationship in Kansas City for the long haul, reflecting their shared interests.

Projection: 4 years, $86 million, $60.25 million guaranteed