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Last year, I shared an innovative framework designed to analyze wide receiver performance, quarterback decision-making, and overall offensive potential. This framework utilizes an XGBOOST model alongside a remarkable collection of route-level data. By incorporating machine learning with this data set, we can create models aimed at predicting target destinations during plays.
Two metrics that emerged from this analysis, Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards, have proven to be more reliable indicators than their actual counterparts. Let's dive into the leaders in the NFL and some players poised for breakout performances.
Top Performers
Zay Flowers continues to shine in his Share of Predicted Targets metric. Before the season started, he was highlighted as a top breakout candidate due to his impressive 2024 PWOPR (a derivative of Share of Predicted Targets). Currently, he leads the NFL in a crucial predictive metric. If the Ravens increase their passing volume this season, Flowers is likely to maintain this strong position.
DeVonta Smith also shows promise in the predicted targets space, though Jalen Hurts has only dropped back 61 times thus far, limiting Smith's fantasy impact. Yet, when Hurts is required to throw more frequently, Smith is expected to capitalize on the target share.
Juwan Johnson is making waves as he leads all NFL tight ends in Share of Predicted Targets. His early-season success is noteworthy, having run 84 routes to establish himself as a key receiving threat. Though his 61.6 PFF receiving grade isn't remarkable, his continued presence on the field positions him well for ongoing fantasy relevance.
Rome Odunze is entering breakout territory. He boasted an elite college profile and showcased a solid share of predicted targets last year, despite limited success due to a struggling offense. Signs point to a significant second-year leap, as he now holds the 17th-highest PFF receiving grade among wide receivers (minimum 10 targets).
Week 2 Highlights
Week 2 proved to be highly successful for the model with only two notable misses, those being Demario Douglas and Khalil Shakir. Major victories regarding target share were seen in wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, and A.J. Brown!
Looking Ahead: Week 3 Potential Breakouts
Though it may seem premature, Kyle Pitts currently ranks as the NFL’s No. 2 tight end in Share of Predicted Targets. His position is bolstered by an optimistic trajectory for the Falcons offense as Michael Penix Jr. garners more experience. Notably, Pitts achieved his highest Share of Predicted Targets in his career at 32.1%, indicating promising growth for both him and the team.
Week 2 Recap
Ladd McConkey
During the Monday Night Football broadcast, announcers highlighted a play where McConkey was wide open for what could have been a touchdown. Eager to analyze this, I turned to the model's insights. This particular play unfolded on a 3rd-and-6 late in the second quarter, with the Chargers leading by just 4 points.
Justin Herbert appeared to target McConkey initially but quickly switched to Quentin Johnston. While Johnston is a viable option, he wasn’t the best choice based on the model's probability metrics. Had Herbert remained focused on McConkey just a tad longer, this play could've converted into a touchdown, assuming the throw was accurate.
Tyreek Hill
This sequence showcased four open receivers with no successful completion. Hill had the highest chance of being targeted, but each option had its merits.
Tua Tagovailoa attempted to check down to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, but the pass sailed high and was impossible to catch. Although Tagovailoa faced slight pressure from his left side, he had ample time to throw. His response to pressure will need to be observed in the upcoming weeks.
Alec Pierce
As the Colts trailed by 8 points with 10 minutes remaining in the third quarter, they were faced with a 1st-and-10 at midfield. Scoring a touchdown would have been pivotal at this juncture in the game.
In this play, Daniel Jones only considered Tyler Warren while Alec Pierce was left completely unguarded. The situation indicated that Pierce was likely the second option, which could have easily resulted in a touchdown had he received the ball. Ultimately, Jones managed a scramble for a mere two yards.